Speed Map Wanganui Cup Final

Wanganui Cup Final $25,000, 520m Hatrick Raceway

Friday, 11 August 2017

We’re barely a couple of weeks into the new season, and it’s already time for the first group 1 of the season.

It’s the Wanganui Cup Final at Hatrick with the bookies having the hot favourite Allegro Gun at a very skinny $2 so lots of potential value to be found.

Box Stats

Our stats show a distinct bias towards box 1 – 20% of winners over 520m have come from box 1 at Hatrick. There’s no particular bias elsewhere although boxes 2-4 have a slightly higher strike rate than the four outside boxes.

Speed Map

We make the point every preview that box speed is pure gold in greyhound racing. The first dog to the post the first time wins nearly 40% of 520m races at Hatrick, with the dog second to the first bend winning 23% of the time.

So if we can find the dogs that are likely to be on the pace then we can have a greater confidence in our selections.

The favourite, Allegro Gun (3) is drawn to be on the pace.

His litter mate, Spring Allegro (1) lead all the way in the heats from box 7 but doesn’t have the greatest record from the ace alley.

Another dog who has been jumping well in recent races is Bigtime Paddy but his record from the outside boxes is not great. Spare Some Time (6) is another who has shown box speed but is struggling to match the form he showed when winning the Breeders Stakes back in June.

At the other end, Ride Ain’t Over and He’s All Power - the second and third favourites – both map to get well back but will likely power home.

Speed May

Runner by Runner

#1 Spring Allegro – ran them into the ground in the heats and had the best overall time.  Interestingly, his best box is box 7, where he drew in the heats, and he’s only won once from box 1 in 4 starts.  That said, if he jumps and sights the lure he has run the times to take this out.

#2 He’s All Power – Is likely to get back and potentially be squeezed between the Allegro bros either side.  Last week was his first race in 71 days so you would expect some natural improvement but the lack of box speed concerns.

#3 Allegro Gun – the record holder for sprints at Hatrick and has a great record over middle distances with 4 wins from 7 starts and all in top class races.  What is interesting is that he’s yet to run an outstanding time in middle distances – he’s used his speed to get on the lead and not been headed.  However, he could be vulnerable if one of the dogs with a strong finish gets a clear run.

#4 Ride Ain’t Over – Is one of those dogs who has the finishing strength to trouble the favourite.  Ran the fastest closing sectional of the night (11.26 – Allegro Gun ran 11.72).  Has a reasonable record for the squeeze boxes and conceivably could get a drag into the race.  If he gets clear air, will come home with a very heavy sail.

#5 Cawbourne Mezza – hard to knock a dog for winning but the heat was the slowest of the three and Cawbourne Mezza had a much more favourable draw (1) than tonight.  Middle sectional wasn’t too bad (13.63) but it’s hard to see a scenario where she will get on the pace as easy as she did in the heat.

#6 Spare Some Time – on reputation, yes, but on recent performances no.  Just seems to be a little out of form and with pace inside and outside is another who will be looking for luck.

#7 Bigtime Paddy – has run some great times coming up through the grades.  Worth noting that just 6 starts ago, he was winning a C1/2 race.  Doesn’t have a great record from the outside boxes but did manage 3rd in the heats from box 8.  Had the 3rd best middle sectional in the sectionals so if he jumps and there’s a little trouble could be in it a long way.

#8 Letron James – another dog who ran a strong middle sectional in the heats with the 4th best of the night.  Has an OK record from outside boxes who would surprise if he led them out.  Has had seven cracks at Hatrick and yet to win. 

Selections

Allegro Gun (3) It’s hard to go past the favourite but $2 in a Group 1 final isn’t great value.  Has the wonderful asset of box speed and it looks like he should get the lead and it will be case of whether any of the others can run him down.  Rated price (RP) $2.50.

Ride Ain’t Over (4) if one is going to run Allegro Gun down then based on the closing sectionals from the heats that will be the dog in blue.  Will almost certainly get back but could well get a drag into the race from the Gun inside and if he’s handy down the back could well run down the favourite.  RP $3.80

Bigtime Paddy (7) could add a little bit of value to exotics.  If there’s any issues at the start could be up on the outside of the leaders and ran the third best middle sectional in the heats.  With a good start could be in it a long way. RP $6

Posted on 11/08/2017 10:09:44 AM

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