Speed Map NZ Breeders Stakes

NZ Breeders Stakes (Group 1), 520m HatrickRaceway

Friday, 16 June 2017

It was only two weeks ago that we were at Hatrick for the Futurity re-run.  Tonight, it’s the NZ Breeders Stakes, a group one restricted age event run over 520m.

Box Stats

Conveniently, we already have the stats handy.  As we noted, there is a distinct bias towards box 1 – 20% of winners over 520m have come from box 1 at Hatrick.  Two weeks back, Spare Some Time jumped, ran, and never looked like losing.

There’s no particular bias elsewhere although boxes 2-4 have a slightly higher strike rate than the four outside boxes



Speed Map

For 520m races at Hatrick, 40% of winners lead at the post the first time around with 62% of winners being in the first two.  Conversely, just 15% of winners will be 5th or worse with a round to go.

The runners most likely to be on the pace are Thrilling Flo (2), Allegro Gun (5) and Spare Some Time (7).   Not surprisingly, these three share favouritism with the bookies.

Bigtime Flyer (6) is another with a bit of toe out of the boxes.



 

Runner By Runner 

#1 Opawa Brad – the ace alley certainly gives him a chance.  Slow starts have been costing him but unusually jumped from box 6 and lead briefly in the heats.  Has 4 of the top 6 ratings over middle distances over the last 90 days so has to be in consideration.

#2 Thrilling Flo – Apart from her last start in the heats, her previous 6 races have all been distance races over 650m and further.  Will undoubted have the stamina and won’t be flinching at the end.  The question is whether she has the brilliance to compete with this class over a middle distance.  Box speed stats have been inflated a little with her performance in distance races.

#3 Albie Punter – Rates well and looks a decent place bet.  She has been placed in all three starts at Hatrick over 520m and likewise has won or placed in all 6 starts from box 3. Brings great form into the race, particularly her last two at Addington.  Not the worst.

#4 Opawa Racer - Bookies don’t have much confidence and the speed map suggests the bookies might be right.  Is likely to be the slowest out and, if that is the case, then will need all the luck in the world.  Will be running on at the end up likely will give the leaders to much of a start.

#5 Allegro Gun – Has been an outstanding CD sprinter but is now making his mark over longer distances.  Led all the way in the heats from a similar draw.  Doesn’t have a gun draw but has the box speed to be on the pace and helped considerably by a slower dog inside.  A similar effort tonight has him right in the mix.

#6 Bigtime Flyer – Having only just graduated to C4 class, he is up against some better quality opposition.  A good second in the heats but would be a surprise to see him come out on top.  Doesn’t mind the green rug though.

#7 Spare Some Time – Arguably in career best form.  Wasn’t headed in the heats from box 8 in the heats and lead all the way in the Group 1 Futurity two starts away.  Has won 4 from 6 from box 7.  Tends to prefer to run a little out from the rails so the draw won’t be a concern.  Definitely in the mix but this would seem to be his biggest test yet.

#8 Thrilling Surge – Will need a map to find box 8 – hasn’t been out here since the end of last year.  Has won from the outside boxes but would have much preferred an inside draw.   With a fair bit of box speed in the race, will be another who is likely to be giving the leaders a head start.  Minors look best.

Selections

The bookies have six runners under $8 so it looks an open race.

Allegro Gun (5) had the best rating from the heats and with a similar run looks right in this.  Rated price $3.50.

Spare Some Time (7) just keeps on delivering and even though this looks a little tougher than his Group 1 win two starts back, has the box speed to put himself in the race.  RP $3.50

Opawa Brad (1) has the advantage of the red rug and has been running top races at Addington.  To be fair, yet to deliver at Hatrick but looks overs at $7.50.  RP $5

Thrilling Flo (2) will definitely make it a staying race but just not convinced she will have the brilliance of a couple of the other dogs from the boxes.  If she can find the lead early, I’ll be off to the bakery and ordering humble pie. RP $5

Albie Punter (3) is another who is in good form and could easily spice up exotics.  RP $6

Posted on 16/06/2017 3:07:42 PM

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